黄金为何不应该过分看空
关键字：黄金后市走势
近期黄金在1280-1310美元区间窄幅震荡，黄金在未来到底是受美国经济的强劲复苏而走弱，还是在全球局部地区不断冲突的背景下再次成为避风港？
美联储减少购债不一定意味货币的紧缩，上周美联储议息会议也发表声明，维持目前联邦基金利率0-0.25%目标区间不变，继续货币的宽松环境（这里需要解释的是，购债释放流动性在金融机构，并未大规模放贷），欧洲降息也为了保持充足的流动性，尽管新兴国家有加息的动作，但从全球范围看，货币宽松是主流；
美元是否会升值？从目前国与国之间的竞争看，持续弱势的美元对美国是有力的，而且美国经济需要达到真实的强劲复苏，低利率与弱势美元至少在2014年仍是美联储的首选；
国际境持续动荡，乌克兰军事冲突愈演愈烈，大有蔓延之势，尤其是今日乌克兰东部两个州的公投选举应经引发混乱，并导致美俄之间的进一步冲突，近期金属镍的暴涨就很典型，俄罗斯与乌克兰接壤地区的镍产量占全球供应的12.7%；其它地区如中东、东亚、西非局势均不乐观，避险需求仍很有市场。
前期美国非农数据与黄金价格的非对称迟滞性有所变化。黄金本身避险功能和保值功能，尤其是后者主要体现在经济的变化层面，也就是说黄金价格对应消费水平，事实上我们看到美国消费数据并未有实质性改变，如一季度GDP0.1%下降明显。
CFTC黄金持仓也显示机构观点与媒体观点的显著对立，美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)周末发布的报告显示，截止5月6日，COMEX期金总持仓增加26608手，至404700手，非商业多头持有的黄金期货净多头增加12729手，至净多头97956手，为5周来增加。
黄金的避险职能从传统的与美国经济数据挂钩逐步走向与全球经济关联，全球的经济、军事、货币环境对黄金的影响力越来越大。所以，黄金价格的走势会受到多元化因素的影响，这一点在分析黄金走势时要多加考量。
综合以上，黄金价格将在美国去QE化及世界动荡导致的避险需求之间寻找脆弱的平衡，黄金价格短期内并不会像大多数人所想象的那样持续走低，黄金的短期走势更会受到避险情绪的影响。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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