HSBC：预计未来5年金价为1350美元
关键字：金价
汇丰银行（HSBC）分析师James Steel周一（3月3日）报告称，实物需求–尤其是来自新兴市场的需求将会推高金价，预计未来5年黄金均价为每盎司1,350美元，波动性将降低。Steel认为大陆的需求占据约全球一半的黄金产量，其对金饰、金币和金条的需求会决定2014年金价的走向，而印度对黄金进口限制的放松也会支撑金价。汇丰银行维持其2014年平均金价预估不变为1,292美元/盎司，长期的金价预期也未改变，预计2015年金价1,310美元/盎司，2016年金价1,345美元/盎司，五年平均金价1,350美元/盎司。此外，该行也预计黄金供应增长将会有所减少，旧金供应会有增加，央行需求会比较稳定。另一方面，美元可能走高仍是金价的主要压力来源，且若是金价涨至1,400美元以上也可能压抑消费需求。报告指出，美联储关于缩减购债规模的速度和时间将仍然对黄金产生影响，尽管缩减对黄金不利，但一个清晰的时间表能减少金价的波动性，市场预期美联储今年会在每次会议中缩减100亿美元购债规模。而预期任何措施下，美国货币政策都会维持高度宽松，哪怕是在QE缩减结束后，因此从某种程度来说，政策仍然是对黄金有利的。
汇丰银行预计2014年金饰需求将增加5%到2,310吨。各国央行则预计购买400吨黄金，大陆的进口量则预计为1,000吨，低于去年的1,100吨。金币和金条需求则预计在1,423吨左右，较去年的1,654吨有所下降。此外，报告预计今年黄金生产量在2,950吨，少于去年的3,019吨，旧金供应量为1,400吨，高于去年的1,371吨。
推荐阅读：
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
最新内容
Risk Warning
Trading bullion and financial instruments carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, requiring careful consideration of investment objectives, experience, and risk tolerance. Key risks include market volatility, leverage risks that can amplify gains or losses, liquidity issues that may prevent executing trades at desired prices, and technical failures in online trading systems. Prices fluctuate unpredictably, and past performance does not guarantee future results. CIDT Global Bullion Limited provides general market commentary but does not offer investment advice and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its information, which may change without notice.
Jurisdiction Disclaimer
CIDT Global Bullion Limited's services are subject to local regulations and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with their local laws. Services are not provided in regions where they are prohibited by law, under international sanctions, or require licensing that the company does not hold. By using the platform, users confirm they are not in a restricted jurisdiction and accept full responsibility for legal compliance. The company reserves the right to decline or terminate services in restricted areas without prior notice.