法国投资银行：黄金市场继续看空
关键字：法国投资银行、黄金市场看空
法国投资银行Natixis的商品研究主管Nic Brown在接受Kitco新闻访问时表示，过去数个月黄金价格不断上升，皆因美国经济充斥着越来越多不确定因素。然而，Natixis依然看跌黄金，该行预期美国和全球经济将会在未来数月走强。
Brown称：“自全球金融危机发生以来，黄金便发挥了十分重大的作用。未来黄金也将继续扮演重要角色，但若是问我现在会否投资黄金，我的答案是不会。我们看跌黄金的情绪不会像去年般强烈，但我们依然偏向负面。”
黄金短期内有望突破每盎司1,400美元，但Natixis认为黄金升幅过大，而随着经济数据逐渐改善，金价将会出现下行调整。
经济数据弱于预期导致美国国债利率维持于低水平，同时也令美元受压，Brown认为持有贵金属的机会成本降低，令投资者这更轻易便能持有黄金。
然而，Brown表示大部分经济数据疲弱是受到恶劣天气影响，若天气恢复正常，经济活动将会上升，债券利率也会跟随美元上涨，最终黄金将会受压下跌。
市场必须审视疲弱经济数据背后的真正原因，债券利率和美元或会进一步走高。Natixis的看法和市场相反，一旦美国摆脱极地涡流，天气逐渐恢复正常，那么美国经济数据将会走强。
Brown认为黄金将会在3月开始下滑，尤其是若天气开始出现早春迹象。若经济情况改善，美联储将会继续缩减每月买债的规模。
虽然也有可能经济疲弱和天气因素无关，经济增长也有放缓的风险，但要形成这股趋势还需要一段时间。Brown称：“我认为数据需要跨越极高的门槛。目前来看，美联储似乎会继续缩减买债的步伐。”
对于金价何时会下滑，Brown指虽然Natixis依然看跌黄金，但负面情绪不似去年般强烈，金价的跌幅也会有限。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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