瑞士信贷：金价今年或跌至1000美元
关键字：金价下跌、金价大跌
较2013年跌去将近30%的金价，进入2014年的黄金表现相当好，本周二金价更是突破了1280美元/盎司的阻力点，连续第五日上涨，涨至1290美元/盎司上方的三个月高位。不过瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)的黄金专家则警告称如果经济形势走出目前的沉闷的状况，金价会在今年下跌到1000美元/盎司。
“今年到目前为止我们所看到的资金流动都是空头回补而非新资金进入或者做多，”瑞士信贷的贵金属研究主管Tom Kendall说道。“如果在接下几天金价上涨到1300美元/盎司上方我也不会太吃惊，”Kendall说，“但我认为目前的动量很快就会耗尽。”
Kendall认为贵金属市场可能会变糟糕很多。“我认为金价金价在今年测试1000美元/盎司的水平是很可能的，”Kendall说，“那可能会在今年下半年发生，甚至可能会是第四季度后期。这不是完全不可能的，尤其当美国经济走过目前的疲软期，真实利率上涨后。”
Kendall的猜测不可谓不大胆，毕竟在2009年秋天之后，金价就再没有低到1000美元/盎司的水平，不过Kendall之前的猜测曾经相当准确。在2013年2月，他曾警告说经济形势好转会使得黄金的避险保值需求减少，而此后在3月底至7月初，金价跌去了将近四分之一。
Kendall认为，在2013年拉低金价的上涨的股市和债券收益率将继续在2014年起作用。“如果10年期债券收益率逆转其2014年的趋势，上涨到2.8%左右，那么金价要跟上就会有很大困难，”Kendall说，“尤其是如果股市也再次上涨的情况下。”
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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