穆迪：2014年金价预期下调为1100美元
关键字：2014年金价、金价下跌
全球三大评级机构之一的穆迪周三(1月8日)发表评论称，下调2014年及其以后黄金和白银均价预期，将2014年及其以后黄金均价预期下调至1100美元/盎司。
分别下调黄金白银均价预期反映出现货黄金和白银市场情况的显著恶化。因全球经济依然维持上升势头，各国政府可能会开始收紧先前的激进刺激政策，而各发达经济体通胀依然“没有起色”。穆迪此前曾表明，如果黄金现货价格低于1300美元/盎司将持续看跌。
另外，黄金生产的运营成本在过去几年上升迅速。穆迪预计，关键资金投入——包括工资、能源、消耗品、金矿探测、环境支出所需和政府税收，并加上维持资本支出需求，额定的行业黄金生产平均成本为1100美元/盎司，其中850美元/盎司为现金运营成本，资本维持成本最低为250美元/盎司。
由于各大矿企为了在此前的黄金牛市当中追求更多的产量，过去几年来矿企的运营成本一直在持续增加。成本上升，部分原因包括矿石金品位较低以及其他的主要成本，如人力、电力、耗材、勘探、环境支出需求和政府版税的增加。
另外，穆迪认为当前矿企的黄金总平均成本至少在1100美元/盎司(850美元现金成本+250资本维持成本)。
不过，穆迪认为也存在一些相对积极的基本面因素，金价下跌成本上升带来的最终影响无疑是产量的下滑，同时也会导致设备和耗材价格的下跌。另外，美元升值对那些主要的产金国也并非有弊无利，因为这些国家的黄金矿企出售旗下非核心资产及其他融资项目的同时会获得更加充裕的流动性。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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