CPM：投资需求成白银市场主导因素
关键字：投资白银、白银市场
贵金属顾问公司Thomson Reuters GFMS报告表示，占白银应用比重一半的工业需求疲软造成了今年银价的低迷；不过，低银价并没有阻止投资者们在资金的投资组合中加入白银，最大的白银ETF–安硕白银指数基金（SLV.US）目前持有白银10139.78公吨，较年初的10084.96公吨有小幅上涨，今年1月的高点则是10734.99公吨。
展望2014年，投资需求仍将成为白银市场的主导因素，此外，由于全球经济增长，工业需求也将有所增长。不过由于白银供应会持续增长，白银价格前景仍有阴影。尽管今年白银投资需求良好，但白银价格却表现并不好，自年初至今已下跌约35%，主要也受到金价的拖累，金价与银价可能双双写下30年来的最大年度跌幅。
大部分专家认为白银投资需求会在2014年持续保持强势。CPM集团资产管理主管Carlos Sanchez认为，从零售角度看，预计银币销售会继续保持强势水平；虽然不确定是否会超过今年的水平，但即使减少10%，也是很强劲的数字。CPM集团预估2014年白银交易价格在18到25美元/盎司间，平均价格为21美元。Sanchez认为当银价跌到19美元/盎司下方时就会激发购买兴趣。
CPM集团认为在珠宝、工业、电子、电池和太阳能板方面白银的需求会有所增长，摄影用需求会保持；并预计白银产量在2014年会增长4.8%。蒙特利尔银行（BMO）的分析师Jessica Fung称该行预计黄金白银价格比会在2014年维持在目前的61:1左右。Fung认为白银工业应用需求会增长，但增长幅度不会太大。
独立白银分析师及投资者David Morgan认为，由于美联储货币政策会继续宽松，投资者们将继续购买贵金属。Morgan预计银价会在2014年回到30到34美元/盎司的水平。白银价格曾经在今年1月达到32.409美元/盎司。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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