CITI：预期黄金明年市场价格1350美元
关键字：黄金市场价格
花旗银行(CITI)周一(11月18日)公布的研究报告显示，预计2014年黄金均价在1255美元/盎司，较此前的预期小幅下滑。明年金价的利空利多因素均存在，其中利空因素是美联储将在明年一季度开始缩减购债规模，利好因素是受到中国强势实物金买盘的支撑。
花旗认为当前投资者十分关注全球的经济复苏，尤其是美联储“是否”或“何时”开始缩减QE规模。而对于这个时下热议的话题，花旗也给出了自己的预期，该行预计美联储可能最早在明年三月份宣布缩减QE。
花旗指出，美联储推迟缩减QE仅能对黄金现货起到短期的支撑，但目前失业率正越来越接近美联储7%的目标值，此前10非农数据显示当月失业率维持在7.3%，符合预期。
花旗也在报告中指出金价的其他利空因素，今年为止黄金已累计下跌超过24%，而与此同时标普500指数却录得24%的涨幅，这意味着目前的黄金市场已对西方投资者失去吸引力，他们更倾向于将手中的资金投入其他资产，如股市中。
不过，花旗强调中国稳健的实物黄金需求是不可忽视的利好因素，这将有助于限制金价整体跌幅。
此外，花旗预计2014年第二季度黄金均价将在1230美元/盎司，随后会在三季度反弹至1260美元/盎司，而四季度均价将再次涨至1280美元/盎司。同时，该行预计2015年黄金均价将为1350美元/盎司，2016年为1370美元/盎司，2015年为1400美元/盎司，2018年为1420美元/盎司。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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