庄信万丰：13年铂金供给短缺扩增78%
关键字：铂金供给
庄信万丰（Johnson Matthey）11月12日公布报告指出，由于工业与投资需求的增长弥补了汽车与首饰市场的需求下滑，2013年铂金市场的供给短缺预估将创下1999年以来的新高；钯金市场的供给缺口则可望缩减，因消费下滑的速度超过了供给的增长。报告预估，今年铂金市场的供给缺口将较上年度扩增78%至60.5万盎司，钯金市场的供给短缺则可望较上年度缩减36%至74万盎司。
庄信万丰表示，在汽车市场随经济恢复而需求增长，以及南非铂金生产下滑与俄罗斯钯金库存销售减少等因素的影响下，铂金与钯金自2012年以来即呈现供给短缺，预期短缺的情况至2014年还将持续。铂金今年以来下跌约7%，庄信万丰预期未来六个月的平均价格将为每盎司1,465美元；钯金今年以来则是上涨约7%，庄信万丰预期未来六个月的平均价格将为每盎司760美元。
庄信万丰预估，今年铂金的触媒转化器需求将年减2%至313万盎司，主要因为欧洲以及印度的柴油车市场需求疲弱；而钯金的触媒转化器需求则预估将年增4%至697万盎司，受惠于中国大陆汽油车市场的强劲增长。整体铂金需求预估年增4.9%至创新高的842万盎司，其中首饰需求将年减1.4%至274万盎司；整体钯金需求则预估年减3.4%至963万盎司，其中首饰需求将年减12%至39万盎司，此将创下10年以来的新低。
铂金与钯金的投资需求也互有增减，铂金投资需求预期将年增68%达到创新高的76.5万盎司，反观钯金投资需求则预期将年减84%至7.5万盎司。铂金与钯金的回收量则将双双创下新高，其中铂金回收量预估年增1.7%至208万盎司，钯金回收量预估年增7.4%至246万盎司。铂金矿产量预估将年增1.6%至574万盎司，钯金矿产量则预估年减1.5%至643万盎司，此将创下2002年以来的新低。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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