LME基本金属下跌 因担忧美联储缩减QE
关键字：LME基本金属、美联储缩减量化宽松规模
伦敦金属交易所（LME）3个月基本金属期货11月11日多数下跌，主要担忧联储局缩减QE的影响，其中镍价跌逾1%；仅铜与锡分别上涨0.5%与0.4%，受美元下跌的支撑。
美国上周公布的就业报告优于预期，带动道琼指数写下新高，市场也认为联准会将会较早而非较晚开始缩减量化宽松政策。Aozora Bank外汇团队主管Akira Moroga称，该行此前将联准会缩减购债的预期时间向后推迟，但目前正在对此作出调整。Moroga称，市场人士目前预计联准会12月份开始缩减购买规模的机率为50%。
巴克莱（Barclays）最新报告指出，受到锌矿产量吃紧的影响，锌价将会获得支撑。巴克莱预计锌价跌势将会在每吨1,700美元附近持稳，而涨势预计会在明年中启动，并预估2014年第四季的平均锌价将达到每吨2,200美元。巴克莱认为，从现在到明年底，锌价约有15%的上涨空间。
顾问公司CRU预计2013年全球精炼锌产量1287万吨，较上年度增长3.2%，中国大陆是最主要的增产国。除中国以外，预计印度全年精炼锌产量75万吨，比2011年的峰值低4万吨。另外秘鲁、意大利产量也会增长。预计2013年精炼锌市场过剩13万吨，2014年过剩量扩大至32.5万吨。
中金公司最新研究报告认为，大宗商品2014年最主要的发展趋势将是供应端的分化，石油、铜及黄金将趋势下行，但铅锌和铂族金属存在上行机会。报告称，在铜矿供应不断加速过程中，短期冶炼瓶颈有望在2014年完全打开，而在中国需求增速放缓的背景下，基本面逐渐趋向更多的过剩将会为铜价开启下行通道。而铅锌由于供给端受限，需求相对稳定增长，将会有更好的基本面支撑其在有色金属中更好的相对表现。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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