预期QE减码 法国巴黎银行下调14年金价
关键字：法国巴黎银行、法国金价
11月11日报导，法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）最新报告将2013年平均金价的预估较其6月份报告上调10美元至每盎司1,415美元，但2014年平均金价的预估则是下调5%至1,095美元，主要因为预期美国联储局将在明年三月开始缩减量化宽松（QE）的规模、黄金ETF（交易所交易基金）需求不振，以及美国经济好转将带动殖利率上扬并支撑美元等的影响。该行也表示，预期各国央行对黄金的购买将不足以大幅提振金价。
法国兴业银行（Societe Generale）10月30日报告称，尽管近期的多项经济事件给了黄金价格坚定的支撑，但黄金目前依然处在周期性的下降趋势中。该行表示，因黄金价格波动而引发的需求暴增已经开始逐渐平息下来，因此有很多理由让投资者相信黄金将继续下跌，尤其是美国的宽松货币政策最终将会结束。因此，该行维持明年黄金价格将跌至1,100美元/盎司的预期不变。
另一方面，世界黄金协会（World Gold Council）投资研究员Juan Carlos Artigas则是表示，日本退休基金对投资黄金显示出强烈兴趣，部分受到安倍政府推行宽松货币政策的影响。协会一位负责机构投资的执行董事William Rhind也称，在安倍经济学的影响下，日本通膨首次上扬，而过去十年来基本不持有黄金的机构投资人对黄金的兴趣也开始升高。根据彭博社的数据，日本退休基金的规模超过3.36兆美元。
英国基金公司ETF Securities Ltd. （ETFS）发表季度报告指出，第三季黄金ETF（交易所交易基金）的资金流出已经较前季创新高的196亿美元缩减至32亿美元；如果就月度来看，今年黄金ETF的流出金额在4月份创下87亿美元的高峰之后已经逐渐回稳。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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