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中国推经济改革 金价或受惠

关键字:中国经济、中国黄金价格

中国的三中全会9日登场,预料可能推出35年来最大规模的经济改革,许多分析师臆测金价或许会因此受惠。

CNBC报导,8日现货金价走跌来到每盎司1,309美元,今年迄今现货金价跌幅超过21%;和2011年9月高点相比,更大跌31%。外界认为现货金价可能进入长期熊市,但是分析师指出亚洲的强劲需求或能给人乐观的理由。

Silvercrest Asset Management首席策略师Patrick Chovanec强调,有意义的改革既痛苦又具破坏力,他猜想许多中国民众将转向安全轻便的黄金。他说,如果中国房地产泡沫破灭,情况将益发明显;在中国,收购闲置房产和投资黄金的作用相同,两者都是没有生产力的保值物品,所以如果房地产大幅修正,不少中国民众将改买黄金。

由于中国房价急升,部份人士认为房产税试点的城市数目可能增加。China Research主管Miranda Carr向CNBC表示,扩增资产税可能使民众较不愿投资房产,黄金成了明显的替代选择。

中国以外的地区,黄金的避风港地位黯然失色。CNBC 10月中报导,分析人士指出,以资金流向来看,芝加哥选择权交易所(CBOE)用来衡量市场恐慌气氛的波动率指数(VIX)似乎成为投资人爱用的避险新宠。

 

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