大、小摩：FED削减QE将延后至2014年
关键字：美联储削减购债规模、FED、QE
10月28日报导，JP摩根证券(小摩)指出，美国9月非农业新增就业人数低于预期、成屋销售下滑使得联储局(FED)延后缩减买债规模时点的机率大增。JP摩根认为，美国债务上限之争将于2014年3月初再度升温，因此FED有可能会等到2014年4月的联邦公开市场操作委员会(FOMC)会议才会开始收伞。
JP摩根将今年底美国10年期公债殖利率目标下修至2.60%。该券商指出，FED开始收伞的两大前提是：美国就业市场改善、财政政策不确定性因素消除。嘉实XQ全球赢家系统的报价显示，美国10年期公债殖利率28日报2.54%；10月23日的2.51%创7月22日以来新低。Business Insider网站，摩根士丹利证券(大摩)经济学家Matthew Hornbach指出，FED开始缩减买债规模的时点可能比市场目前预期的2014年3月还要晚。大摩目前预估2013年第4季美国实质GDP年率将低于2%。
大摩指出，如果2014年美国财政支出自动删减再度启动，那么FED可能会等到2014年第1、2季GDP数据尘埃落定后再决定何时要开始缩减买债规模。黄金现货价28日上涨0.10%至1,352.78美元/盎司；盘中最高点1361.74美元创9月20日以来新高。
「末日博士」麦嘉华(Marc Faber)21日在接受CNBC电视台专访时指出，投资人不该问FED何时会缩减买债规模、而是要问何时会加码(例如：一个月买1,500亿美元？2千亿美元？1兆美元？)！麦嘉华始终认为FED其实是在执行「无限量QE(QE Infinity)」，因为官方在紧急状态下启用的暂时性措施到最后都不会移除。他直称，FED把自己困在一个无法退场的处境。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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