黄金触及两周半高位 美联储政策料维持宽松
周四(7月11日)亚太时段早盘，国际现货黄金价格维持2%以上涨幅，紧盯稍早触及的两周半高点1289.40，因美联储(FED)6月会议纪要和主席伯南克(Ben Bernanke)会后讲话打击市场对美联储最快可能于今年9月开始削减购债的信心。
北京时间10:26，现货黄金报1282.06美元/盎司，现货白银报19.87美元/盎司，现货铂金报1395.50美元/盎司，现货钯金报720.72美元/盎司.
美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)当地时间周三晚间公布的6月会议纪要显示，约有半数决策者认为美联储的购债刺激举措应在年底前停止，但许多委员要求看到美国就业市场稳健复苏的更确凿迹象，再撤走所谓的量化宽松(QE)政策。
美联储主席伯南克稍晚在麻省剑桥一个经济会议上发表讲话称，美联储有必要继续维持高度宽松的货币政策支持经济成长。他认为，尽管面临非常强大的财政阻力，经济仍继续成长这一点令人鼓舞，并称美联储不会在失业率降至6.5%后自动升息，可能在失业率触及该水平之后的一段时间才升息。
伯南克上月给出迄今为止最为明确的信号，称如果经济复苏情况符合预期，美联储可能在今年稍晚开始削减购债举措，并在明年年中之前彻底结束这一刺激计划。自那以后，金融市场便对美联储将从9月开始缩减每月850亿美元的购债规模抱有信心。可是，最新会议纪要似乎给市场泼了盆凉水。
有技术分析师预计，现货黄金价格可能突破阻力区域1294-1302，并进一步上扬至1331。他认为，过去几个交易日的连续涨势暗示投资者对黄金持有很强的看涨情绪。波形图也显示黄金正处在C浪上，这一浪可能延伸至161.8%的斐波纳契回撤位1347。
不过，该分析师指出，只有当黄金清除1294-1302阻力区域之后，这一激进目标才可能实现。他补充道，1294-1302阻力区域是由黄金从6月6日高点1423.16跌至6月28日低点1180.71的100%斐波纳契回撤位和50%斐波纳契回撤位形成。
该分析师表示，在金价升至1302上方之后，一个更加实事求是的目标可能是61.8%的斐波纳契回撤位1331，因为当前的上涨依然被视为黄金从1180.71反弹的延续。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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