美GDP来袭 金银难逃下行厄运
昨日美国公布的一系列数据整体表现强劲，为美国经济复苏的乐观情绪再添一份信心。与此同时也更加巩固了对美联储缩减刺激政策的预期。虽然在亚欧盘时段美元指数曾一度走低，也是因为各国主要央行采取行动，缓和市场对紧缩措施的担忧，这给金银多头更多的喘息时间。但是美盘时段受强劲数据提振美元指数，金银最终也难以将反弹进行到底。
尽管昨日数据表现强劲，但是检验美国经济复苏之路的仍然是今天晚间美国公布的第一季度GDP数据。在上周的利率决议上，美联储强调若经济持续向好，则QE将在年底之前放缓。因此，此次GDP数据可以视作是美国经济复苏情况的重要参考依据。当然，若数据不及预期，将使近期市场对美国经济前景乐观情绪有所降温，打压美指，进而令黄金白银也能有一波小反弹。目前市场上对美国第一季度GDP预期是2.4%与前值持平，如果是这样的一个数据，并不能说明美国经济已经复苏，实际值至少要高于预期才能符合伯南克的乐观言论。
基于昨天的数据表现，笔者认为美国第一季度GDP终值高于预期的可能性较大，这对于金银将是雪上加霜式的又一次打击，如果数据确认了美国经济复苏，那么白银将在这轮下跌时下破19美元的大关。而黄金则有望下破1260美元/盎司。
另外，白银ETF在短暂触及10万吨大关之后再度锐减，令市场信心再次受到冲击。尽管近期美联储退出刺激计划的言辞引发了全球市场的动荡，其效应在一定程度上被夸大。但是纵观美元指数的走势我们不难发现，美元继续上涨的空间将有限，而后市还有非农就业报告的洗礼。而黄金白银目前已经接近底部，预计经过盘整之后，多头将会发起一轮猛攻，大家要做好准备。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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