美指持续走强，金银后市继续下行
昨天(6月21日)随着美元指数的迅速攀升，金银市场以及美国股市、美国国债、石油等市场均大幅下挫。而其中黄金暴跌近5%，单日跌幅超过了今年4月份的那轮下跌。尽管昨天公布的上周初请失业金人数远高于市场预期曾为金银带来短暂反弹，但是隔夜伯南克在讲话中暗示紧缩令金银再度承压，白银顺势跌破20美元的整数关口。截止到目前为止，现货白银在19.65附近震荡。
美联在FOMC声明中表示对美国经济预期乐观，使得美元指数获得支撑，刷新了两周的高点。加之昨日经济数据强劲，美指还将再创新高。费城联邦储备银行周四发布报告称，6月份大西洋沿岸中部地区商业景气指数回升至2011年4月以来最高水平。美国5月份成屋销量也意外上升。各类数据与伯南克的暗示交相辉映，令黄金白银回天乏术。
原本因为今年生效的增税减支的政策曾引发市场的疑虑，担心美国经济将会大幅减缓，而就目前情况来看美国经济似乎愈发的稳固。从昨日伯南克讲话中分析可知，美联储似乎已经放弃了温柔地结束第三轮量化宽松的做法，而昨天的讲话相当于明确地告知市场，如果美国经济增长能保持当前速度，今年晚些时候资产购买将淡出。而美国的利率水平最终也会上升。
得益于各国政府宽松的货币政策，黄金白银大幅上涨，而最为关键的就是美联储的货币政策。如今美联储通过各种渠道释放出收紧信息，黄金白银价格将下行至更为理性的范围。同时在黄金白银脱去金融属性这层外衣的过程中还有概率持续下跌，黄金白银熊市几乎已成定局。
继4月份大跌之后，昨日再度大跌也再难引起实物需求的欲望，或许黄金与白银的价格在此后也很难再能得到有效的买盘支撑。
个人预计，黄金价格在此后将会跌入1240，而一旦此位被破将进一步下探1200美元的整数关口。而白银则有望在17美元/盎司处得到支撑。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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