IMF呼吁美联储审慎退出
国际货币基金组织[微博](IMF)在14日发布的美国经济年度评估报告中将2014年美国经济增长预期从此前的3%下调至2.7%，主要理由是“政府开支过快削减将导致经济增长放缓”。IMF同时预计今年美国经济增速将从去年的2.2%放缓至1.9%。
IMF表示，尽管面临挑战，但美国经济复苏的性质正在发生改变，房价和建筑业活动逐步回升，家庭资产状况增强，就业市场也在好转。
IMF建议，美联储至少应在2013年底之前继续实施大规模债券购买计划。IMF认为，尽管美联储宽松举措有引发新金融问题的风险，但这些举措带来的经济效益要多于弊端。IMF同时呼吁美联储在宽松政策的退出问题上需要向市场释放明确信号，并称这对于减少市场震荡风险以及确保长期利率平稳至关重要。
IMF警告，尽管美国方面采取了强有力措施来加强金融系统，但长期的低利率环境也显示出新的不稳定迹象。有迹象显示，由于低利率挤压利息收益空间，美国地区银行在利率和信贷风险这两方面的敞口正在上升。此外有关借款成本可能上升的预期将导致全球资本市场震荡，尤其会引发新兴市场资本外流。
对于美国的财政政策，IMF再次对今年早些时候启动的自动减支措施予以批评，并预计这将导致美国经济增速被拉低1.25至1.75个百分点。IMF认为，自动开支削减不但在短期内使经济增长承受较大负担，同时不加选择地削减教育、科学和基础设施开支还可能削弱经济中期内的增长潜力。IMF警告称，如果美国政府不提高债务上限或者未能解决长期债务问题，将会给本国经济以及全球造成严重冲击。(杨博)
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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