变种病毒传播刺激避险美元反弹，商品货币走低
周三(12月1日)美元指数涨0.12%至96.02，此前一度下跌0.24%；美债收益率曲线趋平；5s30s收益率差缩窄1.8个基点至61.1个基点。美联储主席鲍威尔周三再次强调美联储将控制住通胀，而且两天内第二次表示将考虑加速减码。
美国银行预计美联储2022年加息3次 料美元跑赢
美国银行Athanasios Vamvakidis和Paul Ciana等策略师在明年汇率展望中表示，收紧的货币政策、通胀和供应意外都是迈向2022年之际做多美元的积极信号。该行预计明年美联储将加息75个基点，2023年再加息4次，2024年1次。美国相对而言非常宽松的财政政策立场可能会迫使美联储比其他十国集团央行更多地收紧政策。该行下调2022年底前欧元兑美元汇率预测至1.10，美元兑日元预测上调至118。
巴克莱预测美联储2022年加息三次 明年5月将加息
巴克莱策略师Michael Gapen、Jonathan Millar和Pooja Sriram表示，美联储料将在明年1月宣布加快减码，可能在4月中旬结束债券购买行动，并于5月份首次加息。预计2022年将有3次加息，每次幅度25个基点；2023年会再加息4次。预计委员会将宣布将把每月美债和抵押贷款支持证券的购买规模从600亿美元和300亿美元分别调降至500亿美元和250亿美元。
大田环球分析师也表示，官员们还可能讨论将当前的减码规模提高到300亿美元/月，意味着在4月中旬收官。预计美联储将在2023年持续加息，但核心商品价格涨势的急剧逆转可能会导致加息轨迹变慢，如果不是直接暂停的话。美联储的措辞已经明显改变，倾向于提前上调利率。巴克莱先前的预测是2023年加息3次，每次25个基点，但策略师现在预计有4次。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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