风险偏好升温拖累美元下跌，商品货币涨幅居前
周三(10月20日)美元指数跌0.18%，至93.60；美联储周三在其最新经济报告汇编褐皮书中表示，美国经济在9月和10月初以“温和至适度的”步伐增长，因新一波新冠疫情放缓，并开始消退。美联储理事夸尔斯表示，虽然现在是时候开始缩减购债计划了，但面对明年可能消退的高通胀，开始升息还“为时过早”。
欧元兑美元料进一步反弹至1.1741
德国商业银行技术分析认为认为，欧元兑美元近期处于反弹模式，日内艾略特波浪表现积极，预计将进一步反弹至1.1741，这是四个月来的下行趋势线切入位，下滑料守稳1.1600心理关口，而若跌破上周低点1.1522，则下一目标将指向2020年以来波幅的50%斐波那契回撤位1.1495和2020年3月高点1.1492，关键支撑位是2008年以来下行趋势线1.1395
英镑兑美元需要突破1.3910/30才能延续涨势
法国兴业银行认为，英镑兑美元需要突破1.3910/30才能延续涨势，英国9月份通胀率从8月份的3.2%下降到3.1%，但这并不是价格上涨的结束，因此不会阻止英镑货币市场对英国央行的强硬利率预期，核心利率从3.1%降至2.9%，英镑兑美元正在接近1.3910/1.3930这一潜在阻力，这是近期高点，也是自6月份以来波幅的61.8%斐波那契回撤位，突破这一阻力对下一波反弹至关重要，如果未能收复1.3910/1.3930，可能导致短期回调，短期支撑位依次位于1.3670和上周低点1.3570。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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