美联储继续保持宽松,黄金再现上扬走势
关键词:黄金再现上扬走势
11月12日,由于美元指数反弹趋势停下,现货黄金重新走强。由于投资者认为疫苗并不能避免欧美国家面临的悲观趋势,美元指数进一步降低。加上美联储继续保持极度宽松的政策,让美元走势难以出现根本性变化。
欧洲已经在努力应对激增的感染病例和新的社会限制,这促使德国政府经济顾问委员会下调了明年的增长预期。美国纽约已经下令酒吧和餐馆提前关门,因为全球新增病例又创下纪录高位。公共卫生专家表示,很可能需要不止一种疫苗来控制疫情。
况且分发疫苗的物流运输要求极具挑战性,近期美元反弹只是短暂的空头回补。总体上看,机构越来越倾向于做空美元,投资者希望美国政府和美联储推出更多刺激措施。
投资者等待美联储主席鲍威尔日内稍后在一场央行论坛上发表讲话。随后,芝加哥联储主席埃文斯和纽约联储主席威廉姆斯也将在另外场合相继发表公开讲话。
美联储继续带领全球央行保持极度宽松的货币政策。规模达每月800亿美元的美国国债和400亿美元的机构抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)购买计划,令美国资产负债表继续扩张,宽松货币政策对美元不利。
尽管疫苗方面的积极消息为市场带来提振,但投资者似乎是忘掉了其他风险。事实上全球经济受到的影响还没有过去,尤其在美国政局面临诸多不确定性的情况下,经济复苏所需时间会更长。
上周拜登在美国大选中领先,引发一波美元抛盘。但美国总统特朗普拒绝承认大选失败,一些著名的共和党议员和特朗普的其他盟友都支持总统的策略,他们说特朗普有权对选举结果提出质疑。
不过尽管美国国会继续分裂的现实令大规模财政刺激措施得以通过的可能性大大降低,但导致美元疲软的大环境并没有改变,美元逐渐走弱的基本情景不会改变。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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