欧洲央行淡化汇率升值威胁，上调增速预期
关键词：欧洲央行淡化汇率升值威胁
9月10日晚，欧洲央行行长拉加德认为没有必要对欧元升值有过激的反应，同时上调今年的经济增速预期。稍早之前欧洲央行公布利率决议，维持现有政策不变，但表明紧急抗疫购债计划将更加灵活。
拉加德称，国内需求出现显著复苏，但不确定性给消费者支出和商业投资带来压力，低能源价格抑制了通胀。未来几个月总体通胀将保持负值，总体通胀将在2021年初转为正值。从中期来看，需求的复苏将给通货膨胀带来上行压力。
欧洲央行预计2020年通胀率为0.3%，6月份预期为0.3%；欧洲央行预计2021年通胀率为1%，6月份预期为0.8%。欧洲央行上调了2022年核心通胀预期
欧洲央行行长拉加德面临复杂的沟通问题。她不能忽视欧元汇率快速升值，也不能赤裸裸地发动汇率战，只能采取模糊策略，口头打压欧元汇率。但引导汇率也是有风险的。
家庭在疫情封锁期间节流储蓄，存活下来的企业也只能把现金束之高阁。在欧洲，这两个因素已经大为增强。如果新冠疫情结束，它们有可能刺激经济复苏。
此前英国首相约翰逊计划部分推翻脱欧协议，这可能会违反国际法。该议案将在英国上议院和下议院进行辩论，需要两院都通过才能成为法律。欧盟方面迅速予以指责，警告这样做可能使达成协议的可能性化为泡影。在一些人看来，约翰逊可能正试图刺激欧盟在一怒之下退出贸易磋商。
分析师表示：“就像在政治中经常看到的那样，有意愿，就有办法。如果由于某种原因无法在10月达成协议，但讨论正慢慢往解决方案靠拢，那么当政者很可能会找到一种方法，在12月前达成一项条约。”
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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