非农稍微好于市场预期，黄金冲高后急速下挫
关键词：黄金冲高后急速下挫
9月4日晚，美国劳工部公布了8月非农数据报告，数据结果显示略好于市场预期，失业率降低至8.4%，在数据公布后，现货黄金在冲高后出现急速下挫，而美元指数则出现了明显走强。
美国8月失业率时隔四个月重新回落至10%以下，实际录得8.4%，也低于预期的9.80%；8月时薪年率录得4.70%，高于预期值0.2个百分点，前值下修0.1个百分点至4.70%。
美国8月非农就业数据中包括了23.8万个人口普查临时工岗位，这一状况基本符合此前市场各界的预估，因此非农就业增幅被视作大体上“中规中矩”，显示美国就业市场确实正在延续复苏势头，并未出现进一步加速或者显著放缓的格局。
政府提供的财政援助用尽，威胁经济从新冠疫情导致的衰退中的复苏之路。尽管新冠染疫人数增长有所放缓，许多疫情热点地区形势依然严峻。如果秋季疫情反弹，可能引发新的经济活动限制措施。
目前从运输业到制造业的各行业一些公司都在宣布裁员或让员工休无薪假。因此失业率可能被低估，有人被错误地归类为“有工作但没去上班”。8月中旬的时候，至少有2920万人申领失业津贴。
美国经济二季度GDP年率创纪录萎缩31.7%。就业增长缓慢对三季度GDP影响可能有限，经济分析师估计，三季度GDP年率可能反弹达30%。不过第四季GDP就不容乐观了，因消费者支出受到打击。
芝加哥联储主席埃文斯还暗示，美国货币政策将进一步放宽，利率将在多年内维持在超低水平，以帮助经济恢复新冠疫情大流行前的强劲势头。即使有进一步的政府刺激措施，并假设在控制冠状病毒方面取得进展，美国的产出在2022年底之前都不会恢复到危机前的水平。
由于数以百万计的美国人失去工作，短期内物价出现可持续性大涨的可能性微乎其微。实际上，美联储忧心通胀过于低迷，目前正维持低借贷成本以帮助推升通胀。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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