黄金重上2000关口，美元被高估
关键词：美元被高估
9月1日，现货黄金想要重新站上2周高位，由于美指跌至新低，美联储政策框架引发外界关注，而却美国零利率维持时间比其他国家要更长，美元可能被市场高估。不过在疫情控制取得效果前，美联储不想对行动方案作出承诺。
美国本周将公布一系列重要经济数据，包括ISM制造业和非制造业PMI、耐用品订单终值和非农就业等，但乐观结果不大可能止住美元跌势，不足以改变围绕在美元周围的负面人气。
美联储新政暗示，将在更长时间内维持低利率。联储称，将允许通胀在一段时间内高于目标来中和通胀在一段时间内疲软的影响，希望推动就业市场收紧，薪资上涨，让工人从经济扩张中获得更多好处。
美联储目前每月购买1200亿美元的公债和抵押贷款支持资产。外界预计，美联储有可能在某个时候承诺保持或加大这一规模。据美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据，对冲基金在期货市场做空美元的仓位达到约10年来最高水平。
除了不想给抗疫帮倒忙外，美联储现在还面临一大难题是：在9月的政策会议上宣布那些广泛预期的后续措施，还是等11月总统大选之后。美联储似乎应尽快采取行动，以表明其认真对待上周出台的新政。不过，在大选前不到两个月的时间决定是否采取行动，显然让美联储面临政治困境。
美联储在2012年9月宣布了第三轮购债计划，旨在缓解2008年金融危机的影响。这个决定当时立即遭到共和党人批评，称美联储在临近大选前采取大手笔行动，旨在帮助总统奥巴马实现连任。
美元长期下跌显然释放出许多不利信号，反映出市场对美国财政状况、经济增长和总统大选前景的疑虑。投资者大多预计，伴随着政经前景的巨大不确定性，黄金将重新开启升势。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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