黄金重现涨势，美国失业人数继续增加
关键词：黄金重现涨势
4月9日，现货黄金重新回复涨势，可能突破到千七关口，由于美国初请失业金人数继续暴增，美元指数出现承压，同时美联储推出的经济刺激政策带来的效果并不明显，同时俄罗斯克里姆林宫对于石油的最新表态则进一步增加市场的不安情绪。
由于采取了严格的措施控制疫情的爆发，美国经济突然陷入停滞，每周申请失业救济的人数连续第二次超过600万，将强化分析师对4月非农就业人口最多减少2000万人的预期；
随着越来越多的州关闭非必要业务，加上失业办公室处理积压的失业金申请，失业人数可能会继续增加。衰退的加深使得4月份的就业报告将再次刷新纪录。虽然美国政府采取了前所未有的财政和货币刺激计划，但美国经济仍面临着重大风险。刺激措施可能无法阻止破产浪潮，而且疫情经历可能从根本上改变美国消费者的行为，有望在长期支撑黄金价格。
美联储周四公布新政，称将采取措施提供高达2.3万亿美元贷款；市政（债券）流动性措施可提供至多5000亿美元的贷款；针对实体经济的贷款便利措施可提供至多6000亿美元的贷款。
对美国第二季国内生产总值(GDP)增速的预估一直比较悲观，分析师预计环比年率可能创纪录地下滑20%或更多。美联储的应对举措旨在缓和经济下滑，但或许更重要的是为更快的复苏奠定基础。
随着美联储启动“无限量宽松”，利率下滑将降低黄金持仓成本，在宽松周期中黄金往往表现突出。此外，全球各国政府为应对新冠疫情而颁布的数以万亿计的财政政策或导致高通胀的环境，黄金或表现强劲。
克里姆林宫表态称，普京没有计划周四与美国总统特朗普、沙特阿拉伯就石油问题进行对话。俄罗斯卫星网援引消息人士的话报道，美国尚未确认出席。
由于防疫封锁措施导致飞机停飞、汽车使用减少，经济活动受抑，全球燃料需求已锐减30%。低油价虽然利好消费者，但不少油企濒临破产，失业率飙升在所难免，左右市场风险情绪的作用十分明显。石油是除汽车以外产业链最长的行业。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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