黄金录得新高，美指开始反弹
关键词：黄金录得新高
现货黄金在3月5日陆渡一周新高，因美元指数在反弹后重新转跌，刷新了近段时间的低位，美联储在紧急降息后，市场预期美联储为应对全球公共卫生事件所推行的宽松政策的空间比其他央行的要的很多，将对美元构成下行压力。
美国众议院周三还以压倒多数通过了一项83亿美元的议案，以遏制公共卫生风险继续恶化。该议案已提交至参议院等待最终批准。
美联储在距离最近一次既定政策会议日程还有两周时间的情况下提前变更利率，也是自2008年金融危机以来首次紧急降息，这令投资者感到惊讶，突显出市场对美国公共卫生形势恶化的担忧，美元和黄金恢复了以往的负相关关系。
克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特周三表示，她支持美联储周二紧急降息50个基点的决定，并称围绕经济前景的风险已明显增加。如果全球公共卫生事件影响的不确定性持续下去，其引发的供应冲击可能会对需求侧产生影响。
大量劳工因病被隔离，或者工作场所为了控制病毒扩散而关闭，工作岗位因为经济原因而消失，原本健康且可以上班的人也不得不待在家里。
消费是美国经济的支柱。而无论上述哪一种情况出现，都很可能急剧抑制消费者支出。投资者对全球最大经济体增长前景的担忧，促使其继续持有避险黄金。
尽管美国的利率目标区间仍有进一步大幅下降的空间，但在其他大型发达经济体，利率已经长时期低于或接近零，那些国家的货币决策当局进一步降息空间相当小。
日本央行的政策决定可能仍有相当大的悬念，因为日本央行的部分决策者认为，货币政策在消除人们对公共卫生风险的担忧方面基本不起作用。
如果全球公共卫生形势恶化长期得不到扭转，美联储年内降息空间将达到100个基点。资产负债表规模也或将重新加速扩大。投资者应采取防御性态度——做空美元，并增持美债以及黄金。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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