黄金多头放慢节奏，避险情绪高涨
关键词：避险情绪高涨
3月4日，现货黄金没有基于扩大当前的上涨趋势，而美元指数则是连续数个交易日出现下滑，市场仍在判断美联储降息对市场经济的影响，也激发了市场对全球公共卫生事件的担忧。其他央行对美联储降息并没有太多的响应。
但美联储主席鲍威尔暗示，美国经济面临的威胁不会很快减弱。因此降息没能阻止美股下跌，推动10年期美债收益率跌至纪录低位0.904%，进一步降低了美元的吸引力，投资者纷纷买入黄金等传统避险资产。
在美联储宣布大幅降息50个基点后，美国总统特朗普周二呼吁进一步降息。他长期以来一直对美联储进行抨击，并敦促后者降息。
特朗普发表推文称：“美联储已经降息，但必须进一步放松政策，最重要的是，要与其他国家/竞争对手保持一致……终于到了美联储走在前面的时候了。要进一步放松政策并降息！”
利率期货市场预计，美联储2020年内料累计降息100个基点。欧洲央行下周将目前已经深处-0.5%的存款利率调降10个基点的可能性为90%。
全球增长预期已经处于极低水平(略低于3%)。全球公共卫生事件的严重打击很容易导致全球经济衰退。美联储周二行动发出的明确信号是，可以预期美联储将进一步大幅放宽货币政策，甚至是量化宽松。
全球公共卫生事件已经波及到约80个国家，不少国家已出台旅行限制和工厂停产等举措。而印度管制药品出口的做法料使西方国家面临新的担忧，并进一步提升全球经济陷入经济衰退的可能性，市场环境对黄金相当友好。
一些专家称，春季会议改虚拟方式的决定可能永久化，因为这样可以节省金钱、时间并减少两家机构的碳足迹。
能源价格长期低迷将对通胀水平产生极大的负面影响，因为包括美联储在内的全球主要央行都将通胀形势视为调整货币政策的重要依据之一。各国货币决策框架面临潜在调整的不确定性，也激发了市场的新一轮避险冲动。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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