美元遭遇大挑战，金市人气不减
关键词：美元遭遇大挑战
12月31日。，国际金价走至9月下旬最高价，虽然中美贸易关系有所改善，提高了市场的乐观情绪，全球经济增长的前景也被看好，但美联储对市场注入的流动性，让美元指数波动至近半年的地位，限制金价下跌。
有关中美第一阶段贸易协议的消息鼓舞人心。有报道称，中方代表团可能于本周前往华盛顿并将于周六同美方签署协议。
年关临近，美联储的三次流动性市场操作中银行业者仅申购其中少部分资金，短期借款成本企稳，这显示美联储或许已解除了融资紧张压力。
鉴于距离年底封关只剩最后一天，市场仍预期周二的隔拆成本将有一些上升。不过，预计借贷利率的升幅可能比起仅几周之前低很多。
我们见到市场利率在年底这段时间确实大幅度下降，这给人的感觉是，美联储已在年底前向市场注入充沛流动性，以应对任何可能的流动性短缺。美指大幅走疲，给黄金市场带来意料之外的支撑。
美联储的定期和隔夜回购操作周一吸引到强劲需求，但仍远低于供应量。此前，美国回购市场9月爆发流动性危机，导致隔夜拆借利率一度飙升至10%，为美联储当时利率的四倍以上。
一项隔夜操作获认购308亿美元，而供应量至少为1200亿美元，1月2日到期的一天期回购吸引到186.5亿美元需求，供应量至少为750亿美元。15天期回购操作中，在至少350亿美元供应中获认购83亿美元。
美联储已经注入超过2000亿美元的短期流动性。美国银行利率策略负责人Mark Cabana预计，美联储回购操作将持续到1月份之后，并认为在那之后美联储官员将调整操作利率，而不是操作资金规模。
美联储很难停止操作，因为在那之后市场仍然会缺乏储备。美联储在完全确定市场能够站稳脚跟之前，不会退出回购业务。如果美联储过快地削减流动性，可能会引发进一步短缺。而美元走强，显然难免给总统特朗普落下新的口舌。特朗普长期抱怨美元汇率过强影响美国经济竞争力，并指责美联储宽松不力。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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