黄金出现多头对抗，市场等待形势进一步好转
关键词：黄金多头对抗
11月6日，黄金多头出现技术性对抗，美元指数回落，虽然美国近期多项数据表现较好，降低了美联储再次降息的预期。但中美贸易磋商传出积极信号时，市场对抛售避险资产有一定的克制。市场普遍看衰通胀预期。
加上上周五公布的美国非农就业数据表现强劲，缓解了市场对企业投资下滑和制造业滑坡可能蔓延至整体经济的担忧。若美国10月份服务业信心下滑，将表明贸易摩擦对制造业的冲击也正蔓延至服务业。
巴尔金在巴尔的摩出席一场经济展望会议后对记者表示：“我认为，现在的情况是，我们已经采取了一些预防性保险措施。我希望，在接下来的六个月里，能看到这些措施带来我们期望的影响。我认为现在是按下暂停键的好时机。这也正是我准备做的。”
美联储主席鲍威尔将年内连续三次降息冠以“预防性保险措施”，旨在应对全球经济放缓、制造业下滑和持续近16个月的贸易争端带来的冲击。只要美国经济维系在扩张周期中，黄金重新开启单边上行走势仍面临阻力。
纽约联储公布的最新调查显示，美国10月份消费者通胀预期再次下滑，家庭对短期物价上涨预估创历年调查的最低水平。这对于努力抑制通货紧缩、防止增长放缓的美联储而言显然是令人不安的信号。
自2007-08年金融危机爆发以来，美联储倚重的通胀指标一直无法长时间维持在不低于2%的水准。决策者警惕美国经济可能陷入的通缩陷阱。降息是抵御通缩风险的手段。
调查发现，40岁以上的消费者或者年收入在5万美元以上的消费者对一年期通胀预期降幅最大。一年期医疗价格涨幅预期中位数下降0.7个百分点至6.3%，而食品价格预期变动下降0.4个百分点至4.1%。
除去通胀，纽约联储的调查报告还显示，工人对就业市场的看法略微悲观。2020年失业预期增加1.4个百分点至14.8%。失业后觅得新岗位的平均概率从9月份的60.3%降至10月份的58.8%。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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