市场形成一致，金价暂缓但影响不大
关键词：市场形成一致
8月16日，现货黄金有所回落，因美元指数录得两周新高，同时美国公布的零售数据强劲，缓解市场对美国经济的担忧。但鉴于目前经济前景风险巨大，市场不可能一直平静，同时美债收益率不断下滑，金价不带突破。表示市场目标明确。
在经济衰退疑虑撼动金融市场后，投资人焦躁不安的情绪有所缓和。美国7月零售销售飙升，因消费者在减少汽车购买的同时扩大了其他商品消费。该数据可能会促使市场降低对下月降息50个基点的预期。
但交易商表示，本周美债收益率曲线倒挂已再度引发对贸易前景忧虑带来经济冲击的担忧。30年期美国公债收益率触及纪录低位1.914%，10年期收益率降至三年低点1.473%。
美国制造业受到库存过剩的拖累，凸显出在贸易关系紧张和海外经济增长放缓的背景下经济前景黯淡。美国7月新屋开工总数年化连续第三个月下滑，显示劳动力和材料成本上升继续削弱住房建设的步伐。
特朗普目前正寻求在2020年总统大选连任，蓝领工人是其重要票仓。但制造商报告称，正在减少雇佣工人数量和工时。自2018年12月以来，工厂产量下降了1.5%以上。
世界贸易组织(WTO)周四表示，其最新经济指标——季度贸易增长指数为95.7，显示第三季度全球商品贸易增长可能进一步放缓。
圣路易斯联储主席布拉德周四表示，本周部分美国公债收益率曲线倒挂的情况须持续一段时间，才能被视为美国经济的悲观信号。
新西兰、印度、泰国和菲律宾四个亚太区国家上周果断地降息，不等看清楚美联储政策路径先下手为强，这种焦虑情绪无异于认同，债市围绕全球经济发出的悲观信息并非杞人忧天。
未来几周，投资者将注意倾听美联储官员的讲话，以便理清本周股市和美债收益率大幅下跌是否会导致美联储加速降息，进而引发金市新一轮涨势。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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