美联储鸽派发言增多，欧元将拿下高地
关键词：美联储鸽派
欧元对美元在2月10日早些时候一度达到新的高点。晚点，美联储将会公布美联储1月货币政策会议纪要，市场预期美元将承受新一轮的空头力量。因美联储有暂停加息步伐的迹象。不过本周欧元区数据也需要重点关注。
美联储将公布1月货币政策会议纪要，巴克莱研究指出，将密切关注FOMC委员们是否认为本轮加息周期已经完成，抑或仍预计未来将进一步加息，也就是说，大量FOMC委员已表达出对加息仍需保持耐心，或暂停加息周期，以评估未来经济数据表现，虽然货币政策声明的措辞暗示紧缩周期完成，委员会无意于上修利率前瞻指引。
此次纪要也将阐述什么因素导致委员会认为金融条件收紧，及经济风险转向下行的原因，1月高级贷款官员意见调查可能对前者进行说明，而后者料由大量因素主导；此外纪要极有可能暗示委员会准备公布何时结束缩减资产负债表的计划。
与此同时，在中国与美国将达成贸易协议的预期逐步升温的情况下，美元极有可能处于守势，可能带动欧元兑美元涨至1.14关口。不过由于周四将出炉欧元区及德国系列采购经理人指数(PMI)，若数据不佳恐加重市场对欧元区经济增长的疑虑，限制欧元上行空间。
总而言之，欧元兑美元短线走势仍需看美元脸色。丹麦丹斯克银行表示，在近期市场对欧洲央行实施新一轮定向长期再融资操作(TLTRO)进行讨论后，欧元兑美元承受的卖压有所缓和，隔夜美元指数承受卖压并终盘收跌，预计欧元兑美元将交投于1.15附近区间。
若欧元区经济数据企稳，且全球贸易局势缓和，那么可策略性逢低买入，虽然短期内美国经济增长对美元的提振可能削弱数据对欧元的支撑，日内焦点转向美联储1月货币政策会议纪要，仍预计当前市场对美联储2019年加息的计价过于鸽派，短线美元可能获得支撑。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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