美联储加息基石似乎有所松动
关键词：美联储加息
美元指数在连续两个交易日走软后，出现了小幅的反弹。但因为美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话偏鸽派，而且美联储11月会议纪要削弱了市场对美联储明年加息的预期，施压美元。此外，G20峰会，可能讨论关税问题。若中美贸易关系降温，将进一步冲击美元。
在连续两个交易日走软后，美元指数小幅反弹，现交投于97关口附近，2018年二十国集团(G20)领导人峰会于11月30日至12月1日举行，可能讨论关税问题，在此关键事件前，投资者们显得较为谨慎。
隔夜美联储公布了11月货币政策会议纪要，几无未释放任何新的政策信号，强化了美联储加息决定视经济数据表现而定的立场，会议纪要显示美联储预计即将再次加息，并为未来更灵活政策路径做好准备。12月加息几无疑问，不过市场对美联储明年加息次数的预期有所降温。
隔夜美联储公布了11月货币政策会议纪要，美元对此反应温和，不过鉴于近期美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话偏鸽，美元整体仍疲软。随着利率水平逐步逼近中性，外汇市场将持续消化美联储加息决定视经济数据表现而定的立场，不过焦点将转向中美贸易局势，若相关忧虑降温，将进一步冲击美元。
近期美联储主席鲍威尔发表偏鸽讲话，明确暗示美联储在未来加息进程方面将更显谨慎，导致美元指数大幅走软。考虑到美联储在较长时间内未调整货币政策，此次转变为明显的政策转变信号，暗示此后的政策从紧之路可能不长，或引发市场参与者们预计在12月加息后可能暂停加息步伐。
美联储12月加息似乎为板上钉钉之事，不过若更新后的利率预期点阵图将明年加息次数预期从此前的三次调降至两次的话，市场可能解读为鸽派加息。整体而言，美联储立场的明显转鸽将降低美元的上行风险，目前汇价已被高估，支撑该行预期，即明年美元将转为走软。
该行预计美联储和欧洲央行之间的政策分歧将减少，欧元区资金流出速递将放缓，这将推动欧元升值。随着美债收益率见顶，日本投资者对外国资产的的兴趣减弱，日元兑美元可能会“明显”升值。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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