鲍威尔央行年会放鸽，美元重挫黄金大涨
关键词：鲍威尔央行年会
8月24日，美联储主席鲍威尔在全球央行年会中讨论经济和货币政策时表示，没有明显信号表示通常加速超过2%，看起来没有经济过热的风险，讲话内容偏向鸽派。期间美元指数大幅下跌，刷新日内新低。现货黄金上涨近20美元，创8月以来新高。
鲍威尔表示，美联储稳步加息是保障美国经济复苏、就业尽可能强劲增长以及通胀处于掌控的最佳方式，美国经济强劲，通胀接近2%的目标，大多数有意求职者都能找到工作，若薪资和就业增长继续强劲，可能适合进一步加息；有很好的理由预计美国经济将继续表现强劲，似乎并没有迹象表明经济过热的风险上升，循序渐进的加息能避免加息过慢和过快；美联储没有看到通胀加速超过2%的明显信号，与之前一样，国内外存在风险；一旦通胀预期发生变化或者出现危机的威胁，他对美联储将竭尽所能行动有信心。
美联储主席鲍威尔有关通胀方面的评论或略微偏向鸽派，但对于以当前速度渐进加息的观点并没有改变。显然市场对于美联储12月加息变得不及此前肯定，仍对其将在9月和12月加息有信心。
对于市场的热点关注问题，美联储主席鲍威尔的表态一如往常：在经济表现良好的情况下渐进加息、美联储将持谨慎态度。此外，鲍威尔并没有回答收益率曲线的相关问题(事实上，在杰克逊霍尔年会上，几乎每位美联储官员都会被问及收益率曲线)。目前看来，鲍威尔的表态不会改变市场对货币政策前景的预期。
分析师表示美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上重申了一些关键性的观点，没有提及改变货币政策的细节，因而市场有关货币政策前景的预期没有改变。美联储将在9月26日召开会议及举行新闻发布会，届时或将公布新的点阵图，鲍威尔将细节留待下月公布而非今日，此举或是合适的。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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