美国碰到了伊朗硬骨头？
关键词：美国伊朗争端
特朗普频繁使用交易艺术，为美国也为自己赚足了好处。但是这次特朗普能否顺利拿下伊朗这块硬骨头呢？目前市场的风向是怎样的呢？
包括“特金会”的顺利召开，缓解了朝鲜半岛的紧张局势；和俄罗斯态度暧昧不清逼迫欧盟成员国在北约上增加军事支出，并试图建立无关税、无补贴、无壁垒的自由贸易区，在欧委会主席容克访美后，欧洲的确增加了大豆进口，美国也暂时收敛锋芒不实施汽车关税征收。
自从美国任性单边退出伊朗核协议后，美伊两国不断交恶。特朗普此前在社交媒体上发表了一整段用大写文字写的文章，大致的意思是“永远不要威胁美国，否则你将遭受到历史上从未见过的严重后果。”
自从特朗普上台后，一切都变了模样，只要有悖于美国国家利益的事情他都可以否决，只要有碍谋求美国国家利益的多边组织他都可以毅然退出（包括TPP、联合国人权理事会、巴黎气候协议）。
尽管特朗普嘴上说谈判，但身体依旧很诚实，极限施压仍是他惯用的伎俩，美国正式对伊实施制裁包括禁止购买美国的银行票据、黄金和贵金属贸易、钢铁、煤炭和汽车行业，与此同时约100家外企同意撤离这个风暴口。（故意避开了石油行业）
特朗普的政策要素包括四个方面言语上恐吓动武的威胁、经济上孤立后再加重制裁、外交上对人权、国内政策的大幅贬低。总统的顾问团队对于这套方针执行的结果是满意的，通过这套组合拳，朝鲜释放了美国人质，并连续9个月没有看到导弹试射。不过这一套可能并不适用于伊朗。
伊朗最大的杀器莫过于大家热议的霍尔木兹海峡。为什么这么关键？因为这是波斯湾通往印度洋的唯一水道，是原油运输的要道位置，关系着全球能源的供给来源。如果说伊朗真的封锁该海峡，那么原油产量瞬间会少20%，高盛曾预言美油保底计算今年可能达到120美元/桶，市场上还有200美元/桶的危言耸听。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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