脱欧疑云再起，加息根基动摇
卡尼鸽派讲话导致多头纷纷结清仓位，脱欧僵局可能深化均施压英镑，汇价自年内新高1.4377已大跌了300余点，道明证券预计多头或进一步平仓，短线风险偏下行， 西太平洋银行表示英镑面临仓位调整风险，后市可能跌向1.40。
隔夜英国央行行长卡尼对年内加息持谨慎含糊立场，鸽派讲话影响持续发酵，导致多头纷纷结清仓位，加上欧盟将拒绝爱尔兰边界问题解决方案，脱欧谈判的僵局可能深化，“硬脱欧”忧虑似已重燃，英镑兑美元延续疲态，而美债收益率飙升带动美元指数持续反弹站稳90关口，进一步施压英镑。
欧盟官员将拒绝英国处理脱欧后爱尔兰边界问题的潜在解决方案，这将深化脱欧谈判的僵局。一位消息人士透露，欧盟只希望让北爱尔兰享受留在单一市场和关税同盟部分地区的待遇。
而时段内立场鹰派的英国央行委员桑德斯的讲话并未有效缓解汇价卖压。桑德斯称英国央行任何加息都将是渐进的，今明两年的年均经济增速将维持在1.5%-2.0%左右，小幅高于潜在水平，这并不意味着英国央行年内加息次数不可能多于一次，或快于市场预期。
实际上，目前来看英国央行5月加息能否成行尚属未知，因卡尼将把表现参差不齐的经济数据表现统统纳入考量范围，本周英国相继出炉的通胀及零售销售报告等均不及预期，均令5月加息前景蒙阴。
分析师认为英镑兑美元短期风险偏下行，英镑表现持续落后于其他G10货币，因疲软通胀报告及“英国脱欧”相关的利空消息导致部分多头平仓。相关平仓行为可能持续，体现了在英国经济数据进一步走疲的情况下，英镑仓位及估值水平看起来均处于极值。
此外，相当长一段时间以来，市场认为英国央行5月加息几率极高，暗示资产市场已将此次加息计价在内，不过在市场交易主题频繁变动的情况下，投资者们极有可能进一步结清英镑多仓。
分析师指出，当前处于“英国脱欧”协商的甜蜜点，英镑仓位持续建立，投资者们寄望在英联邦峰会上达成贸易协定。英镑兑美元已收复“英国脱欧”公投以来大部分跌幅，不过当前卖压的倾斜暗示5月存在仓位调整的风险，后市可能跌向1.40整数关口。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
最新内容
Risk Warning
Trading bullion and financial instruments carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, requiring careful consideration of investment objectives, experience, and risk tolerance. Key risks include market volatility, leverage risks that can amplify gains or losses, liquidity issues that may prevent executing trades at desired prices, and technical failures in online trading systems. Prices fluctuate unpredictably, and past performance does not guarantee future results. CIDT Global Bullion Limited provides general market commentary but does not offer investment advice and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its information, which may change without notice.
Jurisdiction Disclaimer
CIDT Global Bullion Limited's services are subject to local regulations and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with their local laws. Services are not provided in regions where they are prohibited by law, under international sanctions, or require licensing that the company does not hold. By using the platform, users confirm they are not in a restricted jurisdiction and accept full responsibility for legal compliance. The company reserves the right to decline or terminate services in restricted areas without prior notice.