美联储延续乐观基调，有可能四次加息
美联储纪要显示多数委员对经济和通胀前景持乐观态度，加拿大帝国商业银行称美联储对经济和通胀前景更具信心，瑞典北欧斯安银行认为年内料再加息三次，丹麦丹斯克银行表示此次纪要符合预期看点犹存，年内存再加息三次的可能。
此次纪要并未改变3月货币政策声明暗示的前景。美联储对经济前景更显乐观，多数委员表示，最近的通胀和通胀预期指标增加了他们的信心，即通胀将在未来几个月上升至委员会2%的目标。
纪要并未讨论贸易政策的任何细节，不过大量委员认为贸易政策相关的其他问题和不确定性，是美国经济的下行风险。
据观察，该行仍预计年内美联储还将再加息三次，将分别于6月、9月和12月进行，并于2019年3月和6月再加息两次。
美联储3月一致同意加息25点，隔夜公布的3月货币政策会议纪要似乎也体现了委员们的观点基本一致。
多数委员对经济和通胀前景持乐观态度，并认为需更陡峭加息，委员们对经济增长和通胀前景更具信心的立场温和利好美元，利空固定收入资产。
美联储3月货币政策会议纪要并无惊喜，一切尽在预期之中，不过仍存在需关注的地方，分别为：
1、美联储称贸易政策令经济增长面临下行风险。会议纪要显示，委员不认为钢铝关税本身会对美国经济前景有显著影响，但绝大多数与会者认为其他国家采取报复性贸易行动的可能性。
2、美联储认为扩张性政策将提振未来数年的经济增长，不过难以预估影响程度，因产出缺口已接近收复。
3、部分FOMC委员认为极有可能有必要在未来数年将联邦利率提升至中性利率水平上方，从而避免经济过热。
4、尽管市场担心美元流动性存在一定问题，但美联储仍将持续缩减资产负债表。
该行仍预计年内美联储将再加息两次，不过也存在再加息三次的风险，下次加息极有可能在6月进行。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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