英镑连续上涨，迎来全面反弹
自2017年底“英国脱欧”协商顺利进入过渡期后，英镑兑美元涨势如虹，现已连续七周收涨，一度站上1.43关口，本周维持高位调整之势，美银表示英镑被低估约15%，2018年料续涨，分析师称英镑真正反弹尚未显现。
自2017年底“英国脱欧”协商顺利进入过渡期后，英镑兑美元涨势如虹，现已连续七周收涨，一度站上1.43关口，本周维持高位调整之势，美银美林(BofAML)表示英镑被低估约15%，2018年料续涨。
从以往经验来看，2002年-2007年英国经济周期性上行时，英镑趋于被高估，随着“英国硬脱欧”尾部风险的消退，这令当前被低估的英镑显得异常。
基本预期为，“英国脱欧”将达成过渡性协议，此后英镑投资者们的焦点将聚集在商业周期上，暗示英镑存续涨空间。
最新消息显示，欧盟委员会副主席东布罗夫斯基斯表示，英国脱欧协议不会是挪威模式，过渡期内英国仍将是单一市场的一员，单一市场进入权是有条件的，对单一市场的进入权可以依靠对等贸易。
近期英国央行行长卡尼在英国上议院经济事务委员会出席年度听证会，其讲话基调更显乐观，暗示未来不久后英国央行前瞻指引将做出转变。
2018年英镑迎来开门红，G10货币中兑美元表现最佳的货币中英镑位居第二。英国央行英镑贸易加权指数也走升，但仍低于79.00这一“英国脱欧”公投以来最高水平。
从贸易加权汇率指数角度来看，英镑并没有真正实现反弹，2018年这种情况将出现转变，而英国央行更活跃的立场无疑将助力英镑加权贸易指数进一步向上调整。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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