美联储通胀模型失效，加息计划有阻碍？
美联储埃文斯11月15日表示，美联储的一大关键通胀模型菲利普斯曲线失效。他认为通胀不会突然加速，而美联储现在的挑战是如何就2%的目标与市场沟通。
美联储埃文斯(Charles Evans)周三(11月15日)表示，有一种关键的经济模型是美联储难以理解的。埃文斯称，不明白所谓的菲利普斯曲线为什么变得这么平坦。
这一模型表明，随着失业率的下降，通货膨胀应该上升。然而，尽管美国失业率下降了大约4%，但自年初以来，通货膨胀率却一直在下降。
美联储的主要目标是将通胀率稳定在2%左右。最近的数据显示，不包括食品和能源的核心通胀率在9月份为1.3%，年初为1.9%。
埃文斯称，很难推测和推理为什么该曲线突然间变陡峭，现在失业率继续下降，他表示，可以肯定工资压力应该再次出现。
更陡的菲利普斯曲线表明工资增长正在上升，而平坦的曲线则会反映出一个几乎没有通胀但失业率低的经济体。埃文斯补充，不认为通胀会突然加速，如果通胀上升，美联储将会加息。
美联储遇到的挑战是如何就2%的目标与市场沟通
埃文斯认为，通货膨胀的实际预期是推动通胀本身走低的因素之一，他表示，美联储应该强化其将通胀率提高到2%的承诺。他认为，美联储遇到的挑战是，如何就2%的通胀目标与市场进行友好沟通，加强沟通，提高人们对的信心，将有助于我们在通胀目标的问题上获得支持。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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