12月加息坚定，来年两次加息
分析师预计，美联储将在12月加息，而在2018年仅将加息两次。低通胀和疲软的GDP增长可能减缓了加息的步伐，以及美联储的资产负债表规模历来很大。因此，预计FOMC将继续实施他们的紧缩政策，尽管速度将更加谨慎和克制。
事实证明，在这一商业周期中，试图预测联邦基金利率未来的增长，对公共和私人部门的决策者都是一个挑战。一种对联邦基金利率的过度预测的模式已经变得很明显。同样，这种过度投资的趋势也与预测10年期美国国债的未来价值有关，因为其价值受到了联邦基金利率预期的影响。
低通胀和疲软的GDP增长可能减缓了加息的步伐，非正统的货币政策措施可能会影响美联储谨慎行事。
加息步伐放缓的另一个潜在因素是，美联储的资产负债表规模历来很大。事后看来，美联储显然需要谨慎行事，因为它试图在寻求削减资产负债表的同时也提高利率。
在现在的经济环境中，这些因素大多仍然占据着空间。因此，预计FOMC将继续实施他们的紧缩政策，尽管速度将更加谨慎和克制。
以联邦基金期货衡量的市场共识与美联储的点图之间存在着明显的脱节，点图代表了联邦公开市场委员会成员对联邦基金利率应该在某一年年底的立场的信念。在这一点上，市场的一致看法是一致的。
尽管市场共识历来是衡量未来实际利率的一个更好的指标，但这两种预测都倾向于超过实际的美联储基金数据。到目前为止，预计美联储将在12月加息，而在2018年只加息两次。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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