美国诸多事件影响，欧元能否找寻良机
本周美国重磅事件云集，将公布美联储下任主席人选和10月非农，以及美联储11月利率决议，ING认为本周欧元走势得看美元脸色，宜于1.15附近低买，丹斯克银行也称可低买欧元兑英镑，仅美银建议自1.1891做空欧元。
未来数日欧元兑美元料交投于1.16附近，交投区间料约仍位于1.16-1.19。英国央行11月决议一旦宣布加息，欧元兑英镑极有可能应声小幅走软，可考虑在跌向0.8750时逢低买入。
北京时间周四(11月2日)20:00英国央行将公布11月利率决议和货币政策会议纪要，市场广泛预计其加息25点，将为10年来首次加息。
本周欧元兑美元将由美元走势主导，除非相关政局致美元走软，提振欧元兑美元本周上穿关键阻力位1.1670/80，如美联储理事鲍威尔提名为下任美联储主席，特朗普税改无法通过，及特朗普前竞选经理遭到大陪审团指控事件持续发酵等，否则汇价更有可能跌向1.1500，甚至1.1320。
根据特别检察官办公室发布的声明，美国总统特朗普前竞选经理Paul Manafort和Richard Gates面临12项指控。共谋反对美国、共谋洗钱、外国委托人的未注册代理、虚假和误导性的FARA陈述、虚假陈述、七项未提交外国银行和金融账户报告的指控。
年内剩余时间欧元兑美元将由美元走势主导，持续预计截止年底美元将进一步走强，若特朗普税改更有可能实现的话，美元将存更大上行空间。
目前市场做空美元，相对其他G10货币而言仓位水平并未处于极值，不过相对大部分新兴市场货币而言处于极值。美元仍略高于长期均衡水平，但若全球主要央行货币政策持续分化，并未认为估值水平将抑制汇价。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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