美元命运将由美联储和税改决定
美元在上周美国9月非农数据发布后录得短时冲高回落，94关口得而复失，此后便在本周开盘后陷入彷徨，维持小幅回调蓄势的低迷走势。而分析人士指出，美元此后的走势取决于两方面的消息：特朗普“税改”的进展以及美联储新主席人选的圈定，这会对美元反弹势头能否延续起到决定性的影响。
分析师表示，少数几项关键事件将在此后决定美元汇率的全局走向。尤其，美国总统特朗普提名的美联储新任主席、副主席和数位新理事对于加息前景的看法，将直接决定美元汇率何去何从。
此前推动美元指数走强的一大利好消息曾是：美国总统特朗普有意提名持鹰派力场的美联储前理事沃什(Kevin Warsh)出任美联储新主席。但上周有最新的消息指示特朗普或许不喜欢太激进的加息步伐，因而美联储主席人选仍有变数后，美元涨势就开始受到遏制。
美国总统特朗普在9月底时表示：“美联储新主席人选会在未来2-3周间出炉。”而现在距离这一时间点已经越来越近。与此同时，他也推出了雄心勃勃对美国税收系统进行全面改革的蓝图。根据此税改计划，美国的个人所得税税率将由7档减为3档，同时企业税税率将从35%降到20%，对于从海外汇回利润的企业则还将额外减税。
而花旗分析师图赫曼表示，未来一两个月间美国国会对于税改支持与否的探讨结果也将对美元走势构成直接影响，如果对于企业界构成巨大利好的税改计划能够在共和党控制的议会两院得到共识性认可并获放行，那么去年年底的那波推升美元和美股齐涨的“特朗普行情”就有望重演。
但加洛却对税改前景不甚看好，他认为即使特朗普的税改行动正式落地，也注定将以美国财政赤字巨幅增加为代价在。同时，对企业减税的后果是企业将会增加资本投资提交生产率，而不是提高员工薪酬，这对于美联储的加息大计也是利多大于利空。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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