黄金卷土重来机会大大
近期由于美元走强，以美元计价的黄金、白银等贵金属已不再受青睐，几周以来黄金两次测试1290美元至1295美元之间的关键支撑位，但分析人士称，黄金只要不跌破1276美元/盎司，就还有机会卷土重来。
近期由于美元走强，以美元计价的黄金、白银等贵金属已不再受青睐。由于主要央行放弃了零利率政策立场，导致全球债券收益率进一步走高，而这些贵金属却没有支付股息、利息和成本。美联储似乎将在今年年底前再次加息，预计2018年还将进一步加息。事实上，美联储主席耶伦昨日警告称，尽管通胀水平不高，政策制定者们应该避免“过度小心翼翼地”收紧货币政策。在其他央行中，加拿大央行也已开始提高利率，而现在英国央行似乎也将效仿。欧洲央行可能会在今年秋季宣布开始减量化宽松计划。由于货币状况趋紧，以欧元和英镑计价的黄金价格也在本月出现下滑。
黄金还能卷土重来吗？当然可以。美元很容易再次贬值，并直接推动以美元计价的贵金属价格。即使美元继续走高，金价和美元同步走高也并非闻所未闻。此外，还有一种风险，即美国股市可能会因估值担忧、地缘政治风险以及货币环境收紧的前景出现回调。如果是这样的话，这将增强人们对包括黄金和白银在内的更安全资产的需求。黄金可能会因其实物供应和需求力量的变化而得到额外的提振。例如，印度结婚季即将开始，珠宝需求在接下来的三个月里很可能会上升。
话虽如此，黄金目前还没有显示出任何支持的迹象。这是几周以来的第二次，黄金测试1290美元至1295美元之间的关键支撑位，这是以前的阻力。但即使黄金跌破这两个支撑位，仍需跌至1276美元下方，才能确认这一看跌走势，任何低于1276美元的潜在举动都可能为大幅下跌铺平道路。与此同时，如果金价没有跌破这些支撑位，则将继续回升，并保持在1300美元/盎司以上，那么看涨的趋势将会重新确立。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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