全球央行收紧，利率走向成定局
据分析师称，多国央行的货币政策可能永远不会回归“传统”的水平，这意味着尽管目前股市的估值已经飙升，低利率将继续推高股价。
分析师对货币政策做出了预测，预计各大央行加息的速度将比目前的预测更慢。Browne称，我们可能永远不会看到央行回归传统政策，也不认为利率会回到金融危机前的水平。各大央行缩减资产负债表将成为关注的焦点。
对欧元区的乐观情绪日益增强，加上加拿大央行意外加息，市场开始预期，在经历了多年的刺激措施后，货币政策很快就会恢复正常。然而，北欧信托并不是唯一预计利率不会回到金融危机前水平的机构。牛津经济研究院在本周早些时候的一份报告中预测，在欧洲央行开始逐步缩减债券购买规模之后，至少在2025年之前，该行的资产负债表仍将令债券收益率承压。
根据分析师的说法，有利的一面是，低收益率将推动股市继续快速反弹。随着美股本周再次触及创纪录高点，许多观察人士已开始担心，美股正变得越来越被高估。但分析师表示，尽管从绝对意义上讲，估值似乎偏高，但与当前的债券收益率相比，它们的估值仍旧是合理的。
也就是说，并不是所有的市场都能平等地受益。预测欧洲股市的回报率将高于英国，为五年来首次，而新兴市场股市的表现将尤其出色。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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