现货黄金跌落神坛？美联储救不了
纽约盘初，现货黄金小幅下跌，现报1247美元/盎司，日内稍早一度跌至日低1243.87美元/盎司，因美元走强，多头在晚间的美联储决议前获利了结。即使决议鸽派，短线提振黄金，但黄金上涨的势头也难以持久。
现货黄金在过去两周的时间里上涨了近3%，周一(7月24日)升至1258.95美元/盎司，因美元下跌，且美国政治不确定性支撑金价。
晚间将迎来美联储7月利率决议，尽管联储可能按兵不动，但在此类重大风险事件前，投资者倾向于选择获利了结，这导致黄金走低，不过跌势在斐波那契调整位1244美元附近受到支撑。
如果美联储仍暗示将在不久后缩表和加息，将通胀疲软归因于暂时性因素，那么将被市场解读为鹰派；如果显示对通胀忧虑加深，内部分歧扩大，将被视为鸽派；同时美联储也可能维持之前措辞大致不变，将被市场视为中性。
若美联储纪要鸽派，短线将提振黄金，但这并不能为金价带来持续性提振，黄金很可能面临冲高后回落的风险。
市场上已经把美联储升息降温这一事实计价在走势内，决议不太可能大幅打压美元下行，美元指数在93.00/50区域有强劲的支撑，跌至该区域，将有大量低吸买盘入场。当美元开始反弹的时候，对黄金并不是好消息。
同时，进入到第三季度后，美国经济数据可能会有所改善，市场相关悲观的情绪将有所缓解。
纽约联储Nowcast模型，将美国第二季度GDP增速预期从1.9%上调至2.0%。纽约联储Nowcast模型，同时也上调了第三季度的GDP增速预期。
另外值得注意的是，油价的回升，将为通胀上行带来积极的一面。美国原油期货在近一个月的时间内上涨了13%，如果这一升势持续，必将传导到通胀上，将打消部分美联储官员对通胀疲软的忧虑。
这一系列因素都暗示黄金短期的走势可能不容乐观，而更长期的走势面临较大的不确定性，尤其到9月份，届时美国政府将面临上调债务上限的难题，如果发生政府关门事件，黄金将从中受益。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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