美联储鹰派还是鸽派？市场风向无法分辨
美联储主席耶伦在众院作证，整体证词立场意外鸽派，SEB认为美联储处于观望模式，或于9月再度加息。明年底前美联储或仅加息三次。另外，CIBC则表示耶伦证词乏善可陈。
分析师表示，隔夜美联储主席耶伦在众议院的证词强化了该行的观点，即美联储处于观望模式，下次加息时间节点是两难决定，暂时仍认为将于9月进行。
不过若美国通胀持续疲软，将把美联储下次加息时间节点推迟至12月，除非美联储暗示将更为看重就业市场的收紧，并无视通胀表现。未来数月美国通胀表现将为下次加息时间节点的关键。
在缩表方面，耶伦的态度含糊不清，仅重申美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)料今年开始缩表。耶伦众议院证词显示，对通胀前景略显更谨慎，称通胀对经济状况的反应是重要的不确定性，近期通胀有所下滑，美联储将密切关注。
这暗示美联储货币政策前瞻指引存下行风险，当前FOMC预计截至2018年年底将有四次加息，但耶伦的证词可能令此路径更显缓慢。
分析师认为，截至2018年年底美联储或仅加息三次，甚至更少，因美国通胀前景存下行风险。耶伦众议院证词强调美联储未来加息步伐将是逐步的，不过整体而言，其言论显示未来将进一步加息，但仅为老生常谈。
耶伦认为，最近通胀稍有下降的部分原因在于有些项目价格出现异常下滑，而非基本面因素的改变，尽管她承认物价将对经济条件的收紧作何反应尚不确定。
此外她指出，美国经济在二季度升温，预计经济在未来将继续温和增长，当前经济路径为进一步加息提供依据，利率无需进一步升高太多即可达到中性状态。缩减资产负债表方面，耶伦仅重申FOMC料今年开始缩表。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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