美元守稳涨幅
周四(3月9日)美元指数依旧维持强势走势,因此前公布对数据显示美国2月民间就业大增,巩固了美联储下周升息的预期,带动了美国公债收益率也有所走高,目前市场将焦点转向欧洲央行即将公布的利率决议以及周五(3月10日)美国非农就业数据。
美元指数延续升势,距离3月2日所及的近两个月高点102.26不远。
周三(3月8日)ADP全国民间就业报告显示,上月民间就业岗位增加29.8万个,创2015年12月以来最大增幅,远高于经济学家预计的19万个。而美国劳工部周五将公布更为全面的非农就业报告,该报告包括民间和公共部门就业。良好的ADP就业数据无疑增强了对于周五非农数据的良好预期。
而伴随着民间就业岗位急升,也将美国公债收益率推升至12月以来最高。
美国10年期公债收益率触及2.583%,为去年12月20日以来最高,最新报2.563%。美国2年期公债收益率周三也攀升至1.378%,创下2009年8月以来的最高。
据芝加哥商业交易所(CME)的FedWatch工具显示,交易员现在认为美联储3月升息的可能性约90%,高于上周初的约30%。包括美联储主席耶伦在内的多位联储官员均发表鹰派言论,提升了对于3月升息的预期。
美元兑日元小幅上涨,主要受美日利差扩大的扶助。美元兑日元周三一度涨至114.75,距2月15日触及的两周高点114.955不是很远。
不过在周五的美国非农就业报告出炉前,投资者保持审慎,因从过去的经验来看,透过ADP数据来预测政府就业报告中民间就业岗位的情况并不理想。
欧元兑美元在一周低位1.0533附近维持疲态。投资者也将等候稍晚的欧洲央行3月会议决议。尽管存在通胀上升的压力,但预计欧洲央行仍维持超宽松货币政不变。不过欧洲央行或许会出人意料地发表强硬言论,投资者需特别注意。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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