中国需求劲增预期VS充足供应，油价震荡于5日均线
周四(1月12日)亚欧时段国际油价震荡于5日均线附近，美原油2月期货目前交投于52.19美元/桶，布伦特原油3月期货目前交投于55.15美元/桶，因市场预期中国需求将强劲增长，而且有迹象表明石油输出国组织(OPEC)成员国正开始减产，这给油价提供了一定的支撑，但由于美国原油库存上涨，而且全球石油供应充足，短线技术面上方阻力重重，油价仍有一定的下行风险。
交易员称，中国汽车销售创下纪录高位，使国际油价受到支撑。2016年中国汽车销售较上年增长13.7%，至2800万辆。
中国石油天然气集团公司(CNPC)周四表示，2017年中国石油净进口量将增长5.3%，至3.96亿吨(约为800万桶/日)，今年原油总需求量将达到创纪录的5.94亿吨(1,200万桶/日)。这反映出中国能源消费增长。
供应方面，沙特减产的细节浮出水面，隔夜美国的原油库存数据亦大幅增加，大部分OPEC成员国正处于季节性需求淡季，这对油价形成一定的拖累。
据BMI研究所公布的数据显示，大多数欧佩克成员和其他11个非欧佩克产油国遵守去年年底签署的减产协议，减产计划遵守比率为73%。然而海湾合作委员会实施的大部分减产正处于每年国内需求最低的时期，且委员会在减产上有显著的灵活性并仍可以保持出口额。欧佩克1月原油生产报告将会于2月中旬公布，届时市场将更清楚地了解减产如何进行。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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