明日澳联储决议或会降息？
关键字：明日澳联储决议或会降息
中国国家统计局周日公布的4月份制造业采购经理人指数录得50.1，低于3月份的50.2。该数据暗示，中国政府为刺激增长而推行的宽松信贷策略难以长时间奏效。中国为澳洲最大贸易伙伴，对于周二的会议上澳联储是否会降息，经济学家观点不一。澳大利亚上周公布的一季度通胀数据创历史低值，降息预期随之上升。
澳新银行经济学家称，澳储面临两难抉择，一方面通胀疲弱，另一方面近期公布的商业环境调查和劳动力市场数据显示，经济活动依旧稳步增长。
该行经济学在研报中说：“双方观点难分伯仲，周二的会议必将上演唇枪舌战。”
上周三公布的一季度数据显示，澳洲经济2008年全球金融危机以来首现通缩，核心通胀率同比仅为1.6%，远低于澳储2%-3%的目标区间。
摩根大通称，预计澳洲联储周二会下调官方利率0.25个百分点，8月份会再度降息。
大摩称：“尽管我们认为澳储本周抉择颇为艰难，我们预计达成通胀目标依然是澳储的优先目标。”
不过，道明证券称，澳洲联储不该继续降息，否则会给该国的房地产市场火上浇油。
道明证券称，家庭债务负担已达创纪录高位，清偿率正在抬头，悉尼房价重现加速上涨。“房地产行业不需要任何新的刺激政策了。”
本周二即将公布的该国联邦预算案也可能左右澳洲联储的货币政策。
周一发布的数据显示，澳洲私营企业商业信心指数4月份有所回落，不过发布该数据的澳洲国民银行分析师称，受益于低油价，商业环境总体良好。
4月份，商业环境指数下滑3个点至9，不过依然位于长期平均水平5之上。信心指数4月份下跌1个点到5点，略微低于平均水平。澳洲国民银行资深经济学家Alan Oster说：“商业信心对于经济前景依旧至关重要，不过由于全球经济面临不确定性，加上即将公布的联邦预算案和举行的选举，该数据结果还是实属合理。”
该行表示，一季度通胀表现相当疲弱，这意味着澳储为加强非矿业经济复苏还是有下调利率的空间。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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