市场仍顾虑多哈会议无法解决供应过剩
周一国际油价震荡上涨，美原油5月期货一度刷新两周高点至40.47美元/桶，布伦特原油6月期货最高触及42.68美元/桶，上周末的美国钻井数据持续减少依然支撑油价，美元的大幅走弱更是给油价提供了较强的支撑，不过市场依然对多哈会议能否取得成效抱有怀疑态度。
因企业纷纷削减支出，此前美国能源企业连续第三周减少钻机数量，使之降至2009年11月以来新低，该数据帮助油价在上周录得逾8%的涨幅，日内消息较为清淡，依然帮助油价上涨。
摩根士丹利则指出，上周公布的美国原油库存减少并不意味着原油季节性减少的开始，因5月之前供应量都会出现非经常性的下降；由于北海地区及欧洲炼油厂小幅维修，布伦特近期涨势扩大并不意味着油价立即复苏。
高盛也警告称，4月17日计划于卡塔尔召开的会议，其结论或成为市场利空因素。
高盛认为，产出冻结在1月的水准，将无法加速油市恢复平衡，因不含伊朗在内的石油输出国组织(OPEC)国家及俄罗斯今年产出水准仍逼近我们的2016平均年度预估4050万桶/日。多哈会议利空油价的可能性偏高，油价需要持续维持在低档，才能让油市恢复平衡，预估2016年第二季的油价为每桶35美元。
巴克莱银行表示，此次多哈会议举行后，油价走势将会更加明朗；不过考虑到伊朗和伊拉克不会参与冻产协议，因此17日举行的多哈会议无论采取何种行动，对油市供应量的影响料将有限。[伊朗方面称该国产油量升至400万桶/日后才考虑加入冻产协议；而伊拉克今日公布的3月日产量较2月增加近10万桶]
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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