美国三季度GDP终值下修至2%
关键词：美国三季度GDP
周二，美国商务部公布三季度GDP终值为2.0%，好于经济学家预期的1.9%，较初值2.1%下修。三季度GDP平减指数终值1.3%，与预期及初值持平。
本月稍早公布的数据则显示，美国就业市场持续走强，12月12日当周美国申领失业救济人数为27.1万人， 低于预期的27.5万人，较此前一周下降1.1万人，但仍然低于30万人。
随着就业市场状况改善以及燃料价格保持低位，美国家庭支出继续推动需求增长。
美国利率策略师Gennadiy Goldberg称，有人担心消费不可能一直推动GDP增长，经济中的其他因素也将需要发挥作用，才能真正维持增速。他表示，“ 美国经济增长速度很一般，但是也足以支撑美联储继续加息。”
GDP终值的小幅下修，反映出美国企业库存的增长超过此前预期。美国消费者支出几乎没有变动，金融服务支出则被为家庭提供服务的非盈利机构的增长抵消。
企业库存将美国三季度GDP拉低0.7个百分点，超过此前预估的拉低0.6个百分点。受海外需求不及预期的影响，库存继续上涨。
美国企业设备支出增长9.9%，为GDP增长拉升0.6个百分点；对经济贡献将近70%的家庭消费，则增长3%，与此前预期一致；个人消费则为经济增长贡献2个百分点。
海外经济增长的疲软以及美元的强势，则让美国出口继续面临压力，在二季度为GDP贡献0.2个百分点之后，三季度则拉低GDP 0.3个百分点。随着美国经济继续保持增长而其他地区依然疲软，未来美国进出口缺口还将继续扩大。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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