澳洲：下调澳洲经济增长预估
关键词：澳洲：下调澳洲经济增长预估
澳洲财政部已经下调经济潜在增长率预估，以反映人口及工作小时数增长放缓的情况，这表明澳洲政府财政状况存在问题。
此外，这进一步加大了总理特恩布尔领导的联盟政府将预算扳回至盈余的难度，此前已经数次推迟这一目标。
澳洲财政部宏观经济组副秘书长Nigel Ray在悉尼一次商务会议上表示：“我们目前预期未来几年澳洲GDP年增幅可能在2.75%左右，低于政府预算案中3%的预估。”
在5月的财政预算中，澳洲财政部预计2015/16财年赤字将达351亿澳元，超出预期，主要归因于澳洲出口的主要大宗商品价格下跌。这一赤字到2018/19财年有望缓慢收窄至69亿澳元。
澳洲财长莫里森将于下月发布澳洲经济增长和赤字的最新预估报告。
澳洲不得不喜爱套潜在经济增长率预估，很大程度上反映出人口结构老龄化和人口增长放缓。
Ray称：“人口减少意味着劳动力供应减少。”
澳洲6月人口增长年率上升1.5%，远高于许多发达国家但仍低于预算预估的1.75%。这反过来表明财政部可能不得不削减经济增长预估，从2015/16财年的2.75%降至2016/17财年的3.25%。同时，这意味着在经济增长放缓的情况下，澳洲可以实现充分就业。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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