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票委埃文斯:今年没有加息迫切需要

关键词:美联储鸽派言论打压升息预期

芝加哥联储主席埃文斯(Charles Evans)周一(5月4日)重申,2015年没有紧缩货币政策的迫切需要,并表示希望看到薪资上涨的更广泛证据。

埃文斯表示,美国1季度经济疲软基本上是暂时的,疲软的第一季度数据似部分反映了临时性因素;全球各国第一季度增长率都疲软,他预计未来两年美国GDP平均增速将在2.5-3.0%。

通胀方面,埃文斯表示,通胀率太低,应会在一段时间内保持低位,2018年前无法达到2.0%;低通胀说明美联储的政策不是太宽松,他的通胀预期存在下行风险,希望看到薪资上涨的更广泛证据。

埃文斯指出,或许直到2016年初加息才适宜,过早加息会带来重大风险,几乎没有什么好处;FOMC应当避免上调联邦基金利率,除非对未来1-2年通胀率将达到2%的信心大大提高,在此之前我看不到急于紧缩金融形势的理由。

埃文斯表示,“我的倾向是我们不应该加息,直到我们有信心看到持续加息。”,“我情愿延迟到这样一个时点,即届时我们知道接下来几次会议都会上调利率。”

埃文斯称,第一季就业成本指数上涨0.7%让人感兴趣,但他依然希望看到薪资上涨的更广泛证据,“如果所有其它薪资指标也以相似方式波动,如果就业成本指数继续像这样运行,这将是向能给我带来更多信心的方向运行。我在等待更多数据的公布。”

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